That chart is general and directional (e.g. largely pulled out of my ass) so don’t pin me down on exact years (what’s two or three years to a futurist ;) Let’s break it down, though. You’re not the first person who’s brought this up. First let’s call 2014, the introduction of Google glass, year zero. And we need to narrow down what device we’re talking about and for what use. The thing I’m talking about is an affordable, eye-glass like all-in-one device, easy to use as an i phone, with a wide field of view. 2029 is not a crazy prediction for that. There will be lots of interim steps and single use devices (i watch on your face, rangefinders, etc.) but nothing like the smartphone. Finally, we need to define what 25% consumer adoption (80M people in the US) means. If we’re comparing it to phones and electricity, the device(s) we’re talking about would have to be central to people’s lives. 2024 is still possible but my 15 year 2029 prediction is not the most conservative case, either. My point, perhaps overstated for dramatic purposes, is simply that it’s going to be a while… The thinking of one columnist on the last day of 2017. Glad you brought it up. Happy new year!

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AR/VR Consultant, Columnist, Author of the AR-enabled books “Metaverse, A Guide to VR & AR” (2018) & “Convergence” (2019). http://forbes.com/sites/charliefink

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